Where Will Economic Growth Come From? - editorial - NYTimes.com 10/08/2011

<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/opinion/where-will-economic-growth-come-from.html?_r=1&amp;partner=rssnyt&amp;emc=rss"target="_blank"> NYTimes.com</a>, editorial, 10/08/2011.-

Never has the world economy depended so much on the success of developing nations. A misguided focus on budget cutting has plunged the European Union and the United States down paths that will prolong their economic stagnation and perhaps tip them into another recession. The International Monetary Fund was forecasting 2 percent growth in the euro zone before the financial crisis spread to Italy. The Japanese economy is shrinking. Some top economists put the odds of a double-dip recession in the United States at 1 in 2.

These dire prospects, along with the realization that economic policy is blocked by political gridlock in the United States and complacency in Europe, have sent spasms through financial markets, which could further sap growth. Fortunately, developing countries, which account for almost half the globe’s economic output, are growing faster than the industrialized world: in June the I.M.F. forecast that they would grow some 6.5 percent this year and next. Their growth spares the world utter economic stagnation.

Yet developing countries are not robust enough to keep the global economy from sinking in a morass for long. Their economies remain vulnerable to financial turbulence and economic weakness in wealthy nations.

Even a flood of money moving to developing nations, as investors react to the lack of growth in the industrial world, would create new challenges. It would stoke inflation and asset bubbles in developing economies: annual inflation in Brazil is running at 6.85 percent. And it would push up the value of their currencies, hindering exports.

China, the biggest developing economy, is still more a caboose than a growth engine, dependent on rich countries to buy more than 40 percent of its exports. In 2009, China led efforts to help the global recovery, investing heavily in infrastructure and boosting consumer spending, but today it is taking the opposite tack and trying to combat inflation, which is running at 6.4 percent.

To keep its goods cheap, it has allowed its currency to rise only about 6 percent against the dollar since June 2010, even as the dollar has plunged against other currencies. Last month, the I.M.F. called on China to help global growth by letting the currency appreciate more rapidly, which would make Chinese goods more expensive around the world and give a break to competing manufacturers.

China has so far resisted that advice. It lashed out at economic mismanagement in Washington after the Standard & Poor’s downgrade, which could potentially reduce the value of its $1.1 trillion stash of American Treasury bonds. Rather than berate Washington, it should abandon its currency manipulation. China’s leaders have said they want to put more money in the hands of consumers through social programs and higher wages, and to rely less on exports. They can do this without stoking inflation by allowing the renminbi to rise significantly.

The burden of global growth cannot be placed on China alone. Germany has the third-largest trade surplus in the world, after China and Japan, sapping growth in its European neighbors. The United States and the European Union must focus more on spurring economic growth. They should have all along.

Cepal: Uruguay crecerá 6,8%, otra vez por encima de la media regional - La República (Ur) - 14 de julio de 2011

La República.com.uy , 14 de julio de 2011

Pese a indicar que existe un enrarecimiento del contexto económico global, la Cepal estima un crecimiento promedio de 4,7% para América Latina y el Caribe. Este guarismo implica una revisión al alza de su anterior previsión de 4,2%, realizada en diciembre pasado.

El Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2010-2011 difundido ayer por Cepal, explica la situación externa por la anemia de los países desarrollados, la sobre apreciación de las monedas locales y la persistencia de presiones especulativas e inflacionarias. Para los diez países de América del Sur la tasa media de crecimiento estimada es del 5,1%.

Según el estudio, la economía uruguaya se expandirá 6,8% este año y 4,5% en 2012, liderando el pelotón de los más dinámicos. Pese a estar inmersa dentro del mismo marco de influencia externa, nuestra economía crecerá considerablemente por encima del promedio regional.

Este crecimiento se caracteriza por una robusta demanda interna, sustentada por la mejora de los ingresos y el nivel de empleo, y una demanda externa, que dependiendo del mercado y del producto puede presentar distorsiones a la baja. Esto, según el organismo internacional, profundiza los dilemas de política macroeconómica.


Alertas

La Cepal advierte que la región se torna vulnerable a movimientos de capitales especulativos que buscan ganancias de corto plazo.

Al mismo tiempo llama la atención respecto a que pueden originarse burbujas en los precios de los activos financieros y de los mercados inmobiliarios. Otro frente distorsivo de los equilibrios macroeconómicos se deriva de la apreciación del tipo de cambio real, lo que su vez explica un deterioro del saldo de la cuenta corriente, a pesar de la mejora de los términos de intercambio.

La Cepal vuelve a advertir que el actual escenario de precios, con los alimentos en alza, además de implicar incidir en la suba de la inflación, supone fuertes presiones a una especialización productiva en el sector primario de la economía. Una "reprimarización" que supondría un incentivo a la desindustrialización.

Incentivos que podrían menguar debido a que la situación internacional, anemia o crisis en el mundo desarrollado, e inflación creciente en los emergentes que obliga a desacelerar sus economía, plantea un escenario de menos crecimiento para los próximos años.

CEPAL - gráfica - Tasa de crecimiento de la economía mundial 2009-2012

CEPAL Estudio económico de América Latina y el Caribe 13/07/2011