27 agosto 2011
Chile’s discontents: The dam breaks | The Economist 27/08/2011
The Economist, 27/08/2011, excerpt/extracto.-
AFTER two decades of strong economic growth, social progress and enviable political stability, Chile has suddenly started behaving in a manner more akin to some of its neighbours. The past two months have seen huge protest marches by students, in which a small, violent minority have clashed with riot police. Housewives have banged saucepans in solidarity with the students. And this week the main trade-union confederation tried to bring the country to a halt in a two-day general strike—the most ambitious stoppage since the 1980s.
19 agosto 2011
Moderación del crecimiento - editorial - El Mercurio - 17/08/2011
El Mercurio, editorial, 17/08/2011, extracto.-
Poco a poco las expectativas de crecimiento para 2012 comienzan a converger en torno al cinco por ciento, cifra bastante inferior a la que se registrará en 2011, que se situará, con alta probabilidad, entre 6,5 y siete por ciento. La causa más inmediata de esto es el retiro de los estímulos monetarios y fiscales que las autoridades acordaron después de la crisis de 2008 y 2009. El gasto público ha estado creciendo a tasas muy moderadas, para recuperar en plazos razonables los equilibrios fiscales que se perdieron durante la crisis. A su vez, el Banco Central inició en junio pasado un alza gradual en la tasa de política monetaria, que la llevó de 0,5 al actual 5,25 por ciento. Ambas acciones han estado restándole fuerza a la demanda agregada y, por esa vía, al crecimiento de la actividad.
18 agosto 2011
Economía chilena creció 6,8% el segundo trimestre del año - biobiochile - 18/08/2011
biobiochile , publicado por Alberto Gonzalez | La Información es de Agencia UPI Jueves 18 agosto 2011 | 13:02 .-
El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) experimentó durante el segundo trimestre del año un aumento de 6,8% respecto de igual período del año anterior, alcanzando el crecimiento interanual del semestre una variación de 8,4%, según informó este jueves el Banco Central.
A través de un comunicado el instituto emisor señaló que en términos desestacionalizados, el PIB creció 1,4% con relación al primer trimestre del año.
Asimismo se destacó que hubo un día hábil más que en el segundo cuarto de 2010, resultando el efecto calendario igual a 0,3 puntos porcentuales.
El emisor resaltó que desde la perspectiva del origen, todas las actividades registraron incrementos, con excepción de Minería, que mostró una contracción; destacando la Industria como la de mayor incidencia.
“La demanda interna creció 9,4%, con lo que el semestre alcanzó una variación de 12,0%. El resultado estuvo liderado por el consumo de hogares. Por su parte, la inversión creció impulsada, principalmente, por el gasto en maquinaria y equipo”, afirmó el emisor.
En cuanto al comercio exterior, tanto las exportaciones como las importaciones de bienes y servicios alcanzaron altas tasas de expansión.
Por su parte, el ingreso nacional bruto disponible real creció 8,0%, en respuesta a los favorables términos de intercambio y el ahorro bruto nominal resultó igual a 24,5% del PIB, con una tasa de ahorro nacional de igual magnitud, y un saldo en cuenta corriente prácticamente nulo.
De acuerdo con la política de revisiones establecida, se corrigieron al alza las estimaciones del PIB y la demanda interna, correspondientes al primer trimestre. La tasa de variación del PIB aumentó de 9,8% a 10,0%, y la de la demanda interna, de 14,6% a 15,1%.
El Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) experimentó durante el segundo trimestre del año un aumento de 6,8% respecto de igual período del año anterior, alcanzando el crecimiento interanual del semestre una variación de 8,4%, según informó este jueves el Banco Central.
A través de un comunicado el instituto emisor señaló que en términos desestacionalizados, el PIB creció 1,4% con relación al primer trimestre del año.
Asimismo se destacó que hubo un día hábil más que en el segundo cuarto de 2010, resultando el efecto calendario igual a 0,3 puntos porcentuales.
El emisor resaltó que desde la perspectiva del origen, todas las actividades registraron incrementos, con excepción de Minería, que mostró una contracción; destacando la Industria como la de mayor incidencia.
“La demanda interna creció 9,4%, con lo que el semestre alcanzó una variación de 12,0%. El resultado estuvo liderado por el consumo de hogares. Por su parte, la inversión creció impulsada, principalmente, por el gasto en maquinaria y equipo”, afirmó el emisor.
En cuanto al comercio exterior, tanto las exportaciones como las importaciones de bienes y servicios alcanzaron altas tasas de expansión.
Por su parte, el ingreso nacional bruto disponible real creció 8,0%, en respuesta a los favorables términos de intercambio y el ahorro bruto nominal resultó igual a 24,5% del PIB, con una tasa de ahorro nacional de igual magnitud, y un saldo en cuenta corriente prácticamente nulo.
De acuerdo con la política de revisiones establecida, se corrigieron al alza las estimaciones del PIB y la demanda interna, correspondientes al primer trimestre. La tasa de variación del PIB aumentó de 9,8% a 10,0%, y la de la demanda interna, de 14,6% a 15,1%.
17 agosto 2011
Economic stimulus: in search of the Goldilocks option | Editorial | The Guardian 17/08/2011
The Guardian, editorial, 17/08/2011
The western world is running out of economic steam. The US has experienced a sharp slowdown and was joined this week by the eurozone, which reported annualised expansion of only 0.5%. Britain is running on near empty and Japan is in the negative zone. Tuesday's meeting between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy produced some interesting, if controversial, ideas for the medium and long term – convergence of fiscal policies, common corporation tax, balanced budgets and even a tax on foreign exchange transactions – but nothing to avoid the increasing danger of a double-dip recession. There is much talk of the need for strong leadership to get us out of this mess but no one has come forward to do the job. However, help may be at hand.
In an article this week Christine Lagarde, recently appointed managing director of the International Monetary Fund, made some practical suggestions that many IMF member countries dare not say out loud. She argued for a Goldilocks approach to fiscal consolidation – neither too fast nor too slow. While endorsing consolidation in the medium term she warned that "slamming on the brakes too quickly will hurt the recovery and worsen job prospects", a view echoed yesterday by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which urges a modest loosening in the UK, focused on growth-enhancing measures. These, it says, would "improve prospects for output and employment with little or no negative effect on fiscal credibility". George Osborne, the chancellor, still regards such views as on the "outer fringes" of the economic debate.
It is both barmy and potentially catastrophic for all countries to reduce deficits simultaneously when the world economy is on the brink of recession. What is needed is international collaboration among stronger economies with spare capacity – Germany, the US, France, Japan and the UK for a start – to spend money on employment-generating or investment measures to boost long-term growth. Britain this week announced some modest things including an expansion of broadband to country areas (though at modest speeds compared to competitors) and more tax-friendly enterprise zones (though these have yet to prove they will boost jobs rather than shift them from other areas). But this will not be enough to stem the rise in unemployment, which, as yesterday's figures show, grew to 7.9% in July.
Much bolder initiatives are needed. These include short-term boosts such as mending roads, accelerating the return of call centres to the UK and refurbishing the housing stock, and longer-term ones to increase growth, for which there are big opportunities as the digital revolution reaches every nook of the economy. Sir James Dyson is right: incentives are needed for companies to invest in R&D during the recession. Practically everyone agrees that clean tech and renewables are strong growth areas which could help revive engineering prowess. The biggest exporters do well, but smaller companies need to be galvanised to seize the opportunities created by a weaker pound. The rise of internet-based entrepreneurialism is a hugely positive factor where government could help by enabling links with universities in the way that has produced so many web giants in the US. Government could also help by tackling the obstacles preventing able-bodied young people from taking jobs in the service industries.
Not everything is gloom. Asian countries continue to provide exporting opportunities, as do some east European economies. Even Ireland is beginning to show signs of a comeback. But unless the west seizes this opportunity it will have only itself to blame if the world slithers into a downward spiral of fiscal retrenchment leading to lower revenues and further contraction. Yes, there are risks to a short-term stimulus – but they are tiny compared with the risk of continued fiscal strangulation.
The western world is running out of economic steam. The US has experienced a sharp slowdown and was joined this week by the eurozone, which reported annualised expansion of only 0.5%. Britain is running on near empty and Japan is in the negative zone. Tuesday's meeting between Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy produced some interesting, if controversial, ideas for the medium and long term – convergence of fiscal policies, common corporation tax, balanced budgets and even a tax on foreign exchange transactions – but nothing to avoid the increasing danger of a double-dip recession. There is much talk of the need for strong leadership to get us out of this mess but no one has come forward to do the job. However, help may be at hand.
In an article this week Christine Lagarde, recently appointed managing director of the International Monetary Fund, made some practical suggestions that many IMF member countries dare not say out loud. She argued for a Goldilocks approach to fiscal consolidation – neither too fast nor too slow. While endorsing consolidation in the medium term she warned that "slamming on the brakes too quickly will hurt the recovery and worsen job prospects", a view echoed yesterday by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which urges a modest loosening in the UK, focused on growth-enhancing measures. These, it says, would "improve prospects for output and employment with little or no negative effect on fiscal credibility". George Osborne, the chancellor, still regards such views as on the "outer fringes" of the economic debate.
It is both barmy and potentially catastrophic for all countries to reduce deficits simultaneously when the world economy is on the brink of recession. What is needed is international collaboration among stronger economies with spare capacity – Germany, the US, France, Japan and the UK for a start – to spend money on employment-generating or investment measures to boost long-term growth. Britain this week announced some modest things including an expansion of broadband to country areas (though at modest speeds compared to competitors) and more tax-friendly enterprise zones (though these have yet to prove they will boost jobs rather than shift them from other areas). But this will not be enough to stem the rise in unemployment, which, as yesterday's figures show, grew to 7.9% in July.
Much bolder initiatives are needed. These include short-term boosts such as mending roads, accelerating the return of call centres to the UK and refurbishing the housing stock, and longer-term ones to increase growth, for which there are big opportunities as the digital revolution reaches every nook of the economy. Sir James Dyson is right: incentives are needed for companies to invest in R&D during the recession. Practically everyone agrees that clean tech and renewables are strong growth areas which could help revive engineering prowess. The biggest exporters do well, but smaller companies need to be galvanised to seize the opportunities created by a weaker pound. The rise of internet-based entrepreneurialism is a hugely positive factor where government could help by enabling links with universities in the way that has produced so many web giants in the US. Government could also help by tackling the obstacles preventing able-bodied young people from taking jobs in the service industries.
Not everything is gloom. Asian countries continue to provide exporting opportunities, as do some east European economies. Even Ireland is beginning to show signs of a comeback. But unless the west seizes this opportunity it will have only itself to blame if the world slithers into a downward spiral of fiscal retrenchment leading to lower revenues and further contraction. Yes, there are risks to a short-term stimulus – but they are tiny compared with the risk of continued fiscal strangulation.
10 agosto 2011
Where Will Economic Growth Come From? - editorial - NYTimes.com 10/08/2011
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/opinion/where-will-economic-growth-come-from.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss"target="_blank"> NYTimes.com</a>, editorial, 10/08/2011.-
Never has the world economy depended so much on the success of developing nations. A misguided focus on budget cutting has plunged the European Union and the United States down paths that will prolong their economic stagnation and perhaps tip them into another recession. The International Monetary Fund was forecasting 2 percent growth in the euro zone before the financial crisis spread to Italy. The Japanese economy is shrinking. Some top economists put the odds of a double-dip recession in the United States at 1 in 2.
These dire prospects, along with the realization that economic policy is blocked by political gridlock in the United States and complacency in Europe, have sent spasms through financial markets, which could further sap growth. Fortunately, developing countries, which account for almost half the globe’s economic output, are growing faster than the industrialized world: in June the I.M.F. forecast that they would grow some 6.5 percent this year and next. Their growth spares the world utter economic stagnation.
Yet developing countries are not robust enough to keep the global economy from sinking in a morass for long. Their economies remain vulnerable to financial turbulence and economic weakness in wealthy nations.
Even a flood of money moving to developing nations, as investors react to the lack of growth in the industrial world, would create new challenges. It would stoke inflation and asset bubbles in developing economies: annual inflation in Brazil is running at 6.85 percent. And it would push up the value of their currencies, hindering exports.
China, the biggest developing economy, is still more a caboose than a growth engine, dependent on rich countries to buy more than 40 percent of its exports. In 2009, China led efforts to help the global recovery, investing heavily in infrastructure and boosting consumer spending, but today it is taking the opposite tack and trying to combat inflation, which is running at 6.4 percent.
To keep its goods cheap, it has allowed its currency to rise only about 6 percent against the dollar since June 2010, even as the dollar has plunged against other currencies. Last month, the I.M.F. called on China to help global growth by letting the currency appreciate more rapidly, which would make Chinese goods more expensive around the world and give a break to competing manufacturers.
China has so far resisted that advice. It lashed out at economic mismanagement in Washington after the Standard & Poor’s downgrade, which could potentially reduce the value of its $1.1 trillion stash of American Treasury bonds. Rather than berate Washington, it should abandon its currency manipulation. China’s leaders have said they want to put more money in the hands of consumers through social programs and higher wages, and to rely less on exports. They can do this without stoking inflation by allowing the renminbi to rise significantly.
The burden of global growth cannot be placed on China alone. Germany has the third-largest trade surplus in the world, after China and Japan, sapping growth in its European neighbors. The United States and the European Union must focus more on spurring economic growth. They should have all along.
09 agosto 2011
Inversión chilena directa en el exterior llega a US$ 60.231 en los últimos 21 años - UPI - El Mostrador 09/08/2011
El Mostrador, UPI, 09/08/2011, extracto.-
En los últimos 21 años la inversión chilena directa en el exterior alcanzó la suma de US$ 60.231 millones, distribuidos en más de 70 países de América, Europa, Asia, Oceanía y África.
Lo anterior se desprende del estudio “La inversión directa de capitales chilenos en el mundo 1990 – Junio 2011″, realizado por la Dirección General de Relaciones Económicas Internacionales (Direcon).
El informe detalla que durante el período 1990 – junio 2011, Argentina continuó siendo el principal receptor, pese a una tendencia decreciente en los últimos años. Estas inversiones se elevan a US$ 16.195 millones, con una variación de 1,7% respecto de diciembre del año anterior.
En Brasil, por el contrario, las inversiones directas chilenas muestran una actividad en constante desarrollo; actualmente, estas inversiones alcanzan a US$ 11.678 millones, con un crecimiento de 2,3% respecto del año anterior.
En tanto Perú permanece como tercer destino de los capitales chilenos con un monto acumulado de US$ 11.098 millones, con un incremento de alrededor de un 11% respecto de diciembre de 2010.
Según el estudio, los últimos años muestran en Perú un importante incremento de la presencia chilena, tanto a nivel de proyectos de nuevas empresas como de los volúmenes de la inversión.
Por otra parte en Colombia, continúa siendo significativo el arribo de empresas chilenas. Luego de las importantes inversiones realizadas en el rubro energía hacia fines de los 90, los últimos tres a cuatro años evidencian el creciente interés de los inversionistas chilenos por aumentar su presencia en ese mercado, especialmente en los sectores de servicios, industria y energía este último año. A junio de 2011, la inversión directa chilena alcanzó los US$ 8.425 millones, con una variación de 4,4% respecto de diciembre de 2010.
En los últimos 21 años la inversión chilena directa en el exterior alcanzó la suma de US$ 60.231 millones, distribuidos en más de 70 países de América, Europa, Asia, Oceanía y África.
Lo anterior se desprende del estudio “La inversión directa de capitales chilenos en el mundo 1990 – Junio 2011″, realizado por la Dirección General de Relaciones Económicas Internacionales (Direcon).
El informe detalla que durante el período 1990 – junio 2011, Argentina continuó siendo el principal receptor, pese a una tendencia decreciente en los últimos años. Estas inversiones se elevan a US$ 16.195 millones, con una variación de 1,7% respecto de diciembre del año anterior.
En Brasil, por el contrario, las inversiones directas chilenas muestran una actividad en constante desarrollo; actualmente, estas inversiones alcanzan a US$ 11.678 millones, con un crecimiento de 2,3% respecto del año anterior.
En tanto Perú permanece como tercer destino de los capitales chilenos con un monto acumulado de US$ 11.098 millones, con un incremento de alrededor de un 11% respecto de diciembre de 2010.
Según el estudio, los últimos años muestran en Perú un importante incremento de la presencia chilena, tanto a nivel de proyectos de nuevas empresas como de los volúmenes de la inversión.
Por otra parte en Colombia, continúa siendo significativo el arribo de empresas chilenas. Luego de las importantes inversiones realizadas en el rubro energía hacia fines de los 90, los últimos tres a cuatro años evidencian el creciente interés de los inversionistas chilenos por aumentar su presencia en ese mercado, especialmente en los sectores de servicios, industria y energía este último año. A junio de 2011, la inversión directa chilena alcanzó los US$ 8.425 millones, con una variación de 4,4% respecto de diciembre de 2010.
06 agosto 2011
Time to Say It - Double Dip May Be Happening - by Floyd Norris - NYTimes.com 04/08/2011
NYTimes.com, by Floyd Norris, 04/08/2011, excerpt/extracto.-
(...) Until recently, most observers believed the American economy was in a slow recovery, albeit one with very disappointing job growth. The official figures on gross domestic product showed the United States economy grew to a record size in the final three months of 2010, having erased the loss of 4.1 percent in G.D.P. from top to bottom.
Then last week the government announced its annual revision to the numbers for the last several years. New government surveys indicated Americans had spent less than previously estimated in 2009 and 2010 on a wide range of things, including food, clothing and computers. Tax returns showed Americans even cut back on gambling. The recession now appears to have been deeper — a top-to-bottom fall of 5.1 percent — and the recovery even less impressive. The economy is still smaller than it was in 2007.
(...) Until recently, most observers believed the American economy was in a slow recovery, albeit one with very disappointing job growth. The official figures on gross domestic product showed the United States economy grew to a record size in the final three months of 2010, having erased the loss of 4.1 percent in G.D.P. from top to bottom.
Then last week the government announced its annual revision to the numbers for the last several years. New government surveys indicated Americans had spent less than previously estimated in 2009 and 2010 on a wide range of things, including food, clothing and computers. Tax returns showed Americans even cut back on gambling. The recession now appears to have been deeper — a top-to-bottom fall of 5.1 percent — and the recovery even less impressive. The economy is still smaller than it was in 2007.
04 agosto 2011
"Mitos y verdades" del acuerdo por el techo de la deuda, según la Casa Blanca - InfoBae - 04/08/2011
InfoBae (Argentina) , 04/08/2011, extracto.-
El gobierno estadounidense publicó en su web un artículo donde sale al cruce de la prensa y la oposición. Aseguró que Obama no sufrió una derrota y que 'a la hora de la verdad' fueron los republicanos quienes perdieron.
El gobierno estadounidense publicó en su web un artículo donde sale al cruce de la prensa y la oposición. Aseguró que Obama no sufrió una derrota y que 'a la hora de la verdad' fueron los republicanos quienes perdieron.
Estados Unidos - Our Sputtering Economy, by the Numbers - ProPublica 04/08/2011
ProPublica, 04/08/2011, extracto.-
With increasing signs that the economy is laboring, most economists agree that a short-term infusion of spending, or an extension of this year's temporary cut in Social Security taxes, could help fend off a new downturn.
But whatever one thinks of the debt deal
—and most of its billions in cuts won't come for a few years—there's a near-consensus in Washington against spending increases.
Here's a brief overview of some key stats on where the economy stands.
The economy by your numbers (suggested by our readers on Twitter):
What stats best describe our economy? Tweet at @ProPublica or email Braden. Make sure to include your source.
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